What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 15¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.99.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 15% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 15%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Maximum traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? on Kalshi

If Nov 15, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: IMF PortWatch.

Market says (typical open contract)

15%

Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

29% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
15¢ (now)	0.9¢	$2.98	15.9%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will November 2 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/2 - 11/8)? · November 2	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	18,117	Nov 10, 14:00 UTC
Will November 3 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/2 - 11/8)? · November 3	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	13,892	Nov 10, 14:00 UTC
Will November 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/2 - 11/8)? · November 7	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	12,398	Nov 10, 14:00 UTC
Will November 4 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/2 - 11/8)? · November 4	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	11,997	Nov 10, 14:00 UTC
Will November 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/2 - 11/8)? · November 6	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	51%	9,470	Nov 10, 14:00 UTC
Will November 5 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/2 - 11/8)? · November 5	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	9,382	Nov 10, 14:00 UTC
Will November 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/2 - 11/8)? · November 8	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	8,744	Nov 10, 14:00 UTC
Will November 9 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/9 - 11/15)? · November 9	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	5,384	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will November 10 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/9 - 11/15)? · November 10	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	2,349	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will November 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/9 - 11/15)? · November 11	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	620	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will November 15 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/9 - 11/15)? · November 15	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	31%	19	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will November 14 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/9 - 11/15)? · November 14	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	31%	19	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will November 13 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/9 - 11/15)? · November 13	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	31%	19	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will November 12 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (11/9 - 11/15)? · November 12	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	31%	19	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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