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Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? on Kalshi
If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 9 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: IMF PortWatch.
Market says (typical open contract)
45%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 10 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 36,054 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 3 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 3 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 29,937 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 8 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 8 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 27,886 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 4 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 20,308 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 9 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 9 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,167 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 7 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 7 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 7,330 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 10 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,720 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 3 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 3 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,944 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 6 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 6 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 2,629 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 9 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 9 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,037 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 5 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,526 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 7 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 7 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 390 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 4 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 252 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 8 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 8 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 24 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 5 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 9 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 6 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 6 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 4 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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