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Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Kalshi
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 50 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: IMF PortWatch.
Market says (typical open contract)
31%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
62% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 31¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.41 | 32.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 15 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 96,840 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 40 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 56,095 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 30 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 54,854 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 20 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 45,047 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 27 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 27 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 41,945 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 35 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 35 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 27,172 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 25 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 23,945 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 23 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 23 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 23,282 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 50 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,979 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 50 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 15,453 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 40 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 13,817 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 25 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 5,670 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 30 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 4,002 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 27 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 27 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 3,692 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 15 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 2,544 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 35 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 35 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,141 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 23 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 23 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 783 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 20 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 306 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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