What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 42¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.03.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 44% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 42%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

2026 House popular vote vs. generic ballot on Kalshi

If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -0.9 and 0.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives, VoteHub.

Market says (typical open contract)

42%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

84% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
42¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.03	43.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin? · R+0.9 to D+0.9	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,768	Mar 01, 13:59 UTC
Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote? · D+1 to D+2.9	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,485	Mar 01, 13:59 UTC
Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote? · D+3 to D+4.9	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	85%	878	Mar 01, 13:59 UTC
Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 5 to 6.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote? · D+5 to D+6.9	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	115	Mar 01, 13:59 UTC
Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote? · R+3 to R+4.9	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	89%	25	Mar 01, 13:59 UTC
Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote? · R+1 to R+2.9	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	84%	20	Mar 01, 13:59 UTC
Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote? · R+7 or more	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	10	Mar 01, 13:59 UTC
Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 5 to 6.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote? · R+5 to R+6.9	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	10	Mar 01, 13:59 UTC
Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote? · D+7 or more	47¢	47%	1.7¢	—	94%	10	Mar 01, 13:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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