What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 46¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.91.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 47% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 46%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Hurricane category on Kalshi

If Ulana reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 157 mph, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The Weather Company.

Market says (typical open contract)

46%

Median YES price across 85 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

91% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
46¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.89	47.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Paulette become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	4,958	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Rene become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	1,050	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Pena become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	600	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Paulette become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	496	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Rene become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above	10¢	10%	0.7¢	—	21%	490	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Paulette become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	370	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Paulette become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	370	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Wilfred become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	203	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Rene become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	188	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Paulette become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	175	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Wilfred become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	119	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Sally become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above	14¢	14%	0.9¢	—	29%	104	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Sally become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	97	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Rene become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	75	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Sally become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	75	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Vicky become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	71	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Vicky become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	70	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Vicky become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	70	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Vicky become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	70	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Teddy become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	70	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Teddy become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	70	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Wilfred become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	70	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Wilfred become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	70	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Wilfred become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	70	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Omar become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	56	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Pena become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Pena become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Pena become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Pena become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Rene become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Leah become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	97%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Kyle become a Category 5 hurricane? · Category 5 or above	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Kyle become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above	10¢	10%	0.7¢	—	21%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Vicky become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Teddy become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	90%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Teddy become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	90%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Teddy become a Category 1 hurricane? · Category 1 or above	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Sally become a Category 3 hurricane? · Category 3 or above	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Sally become a Category 2 hurricane? · Category 2 or above	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Omar become a Category 4 hurricane? · Category 4 or above	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	50	Dec 02, 04:59 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 85 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.