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hurricane hits alabama on Kalshi

If, after this market is issued and before 12:00 AM EST on December 31, 2026, the 2026 named storm Isaias has an official National Hurricane Center track segment that intersects with or terminates within the defined Alabama boundary, where both consecutive advisories report sustained winds of at least 74 mph, the advisories are issued no more than 12 hours apart, and both contain latitude/longitude coordinates rounded to the nearest 0.1 degree, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: AccuWeather, NBC, Associated Press, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The Wall Street Journal, the National Hurricane Center, The Washington Post, National Weather Service, CNN Weather, The New York Times, Bloomberg News, The Weather Channel, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)0.2¢$3.403.2%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026? · Before Dec 31, 20262¢2%0.2¢—5%79,131Dec 31, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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