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Which Representatives will vote to impeach Pete Hegseth? on Kalshi
If Zach Nunn votes for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth in the House before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: U.S. Congress, United States House of Representatives.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
77% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 39¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.14 | 40.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Don Bacon vote for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth? · Don Bacon | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 1,558 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Warren Davidson vote for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth? · Warren Davidson | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 558 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will French Hill vote for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth? · French Hill | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 473 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Massie vote for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth? · Thomas Massie | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 469 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brian Fitzpatrick vote for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth? · Brian Fitzpatrick | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 298 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Barrett vote for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth? · Tom Barrett | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 204 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nancy Mace vote for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth? · Nancy Mace | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 9 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zach Nunn vote for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth? · Zach Nunn | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 5 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Henry Cuellar vote for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth? · Henry Cuellar | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 5 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mariannette Miller-Meeks vote for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth? · Mariannette Miller-Meeks | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 4 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jared Golden vote for a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth? · Jared Golden | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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