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Cindy Hyde-Smith concede on Kalshi
If Cindy Hyde-Smith has made a statement conceding defeat in the 2026 Mississippi Senate race before Nov 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Cindy Hyde-Smith.
Market says (typical open contract)
69%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
62% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 69¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.09 | 70.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cindy Hyde-Smith concede defeat in the 2026 Mississippi Senate race before Nov 11, 2026? · Before Nov 11, 2026 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,134 | Nov 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Cindy Hyde-Smith concede defeat in the 2026 Mississippi Senate race before Nov 14, 2026? · Before Nov 14, 2026 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 1,101 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Cindy Hyde-Smith concede defeat in the 2026 Mississippi Senate race before Nov 21, 2026? · Before Nov 21, 2026 | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 334 | Nov 22, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Cindy Hyde-Smith concede defeat in the 2026 Mississippi Senate race before Jan 4, 2027? · Before Jan 4, 2027 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 283 | Jan 05, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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