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Samsara annual kpi on Kalshi
If Samsara Inc. reports Above 4200 large customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
76%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
49% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 76¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $0.84 | 77.3% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Samsara Inc. report Above 4100 large customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2027? · Above 4100 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 3 | Jun 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Samsara Inc. report Above 4200 large customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2027? · Above 4200 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Jun 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Samsara Inc. report Above 4150 large customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2027? · Above 4150 | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Jun 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Samsara Inc. report Above 4050 large customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2027? · Above 4050 | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Jun 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Samsara Inc. report Above 4000 large customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2027? · Above 4000 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Jun 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3950 large customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2027? · Above 3950 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Jun 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3900 large customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2027? · Above 3900 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jun 02, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Samsara Inc. report Above 3850 large customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2027? · Above 3850 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jun 02, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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