Markets › Kalshi › Financials
IPOs on Kalshi
If Vanta confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, BBC, Financial Times, Reuters, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 51 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will IPO before 2027? · OpenAI | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 435,166 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Anthropic | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 430,726 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Anduril | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 265,791 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Databricks | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 232,456 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Kraken | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 162,649 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Discord | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 142,768 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Stripe | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 83,688 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Plaid | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 52,520 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · xAI | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 50,469 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Brex | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 45,590 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO in 2026? · Oura | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 41,958 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Deel | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 39,358 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Ripple Labs | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 35,748 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Ramp | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 34,257 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Anysphere (Cursor) | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 29,858 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Applied Intuition | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 24,887 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Rippling | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 21,510 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Celonis | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 18,895 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO in 2026? · Beast Industries | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 15,852 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Airwallex | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 13,702 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Vanta | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 12,204 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Glean | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,833 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Skims | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,238 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO before 2027? · Mistral AI | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 7,165 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO in 2026? · DeepSeek | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5,955 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Skims IPO before Jan 1, 2028? · Skims | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 4,444 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Bloomberg IPO before Jan 1, 2028? · Bloomberg | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 4,111 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO in 2026? · Bloomberg | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,095 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Who will IPO in 2026? · Gopuff | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,035 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kraken IPO before Jan 1, 2028? · Kraken | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 790 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenAI IPO before Jan 1, 2028? · OpenAI | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 709 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gopuff IPO before Jan 1, 2028? · Gopuff | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 635 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Discord IPO before Jan 1, 2028? · Discord | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 634 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Databricks IPO before Jan 1, 2028? · Databricks | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 487 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DeepSeek IPO before Jan 1, 2028? · DeepSeek | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 9 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Plaid IPO before Jan 1, 2028? · Plaid | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 4 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Vanta IPO before Jan 1, 2028? · Vanta | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stripe IPO before Jan 1, 2028? · Stripe | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rippling IPO before Jan 1, 2028? · Rippling | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Ripple Labs IPO before Jan 1, 2028? · Ripple Labs | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 51 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.