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How many Knesset seats will Israel's next government hold? on Kalshi
If the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government is at least 70 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Knesset.
Market says (typical open contract)
62%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
76% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 62¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.33 | 63.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 45 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)? · At least 45 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 300 | Oct 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 61 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)? · At least 61 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 18 | Oct 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 55 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)? · At least 55 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 15 | Oct 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 66 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)? · At least 66 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 6 | Oct 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 70 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)? · At least 70 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Oct 28, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Knesset seats held by the factions in Israel's next government be at least 50 when the Knesset approves it before Oct 28, 2027 (0 if it does not)? · At least 50 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Oct 28, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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