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Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election? on Kalshi
If Yitzhak Wasserlauf formally takes office as Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Deutsche Welle, MS Now, ABC, Al Jazeera, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Fox News, CNN, ABC News Australia, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yoav Segalovitz be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yoav Segalovitz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10,368 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Meirav Ben-Ari be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Meirav Ben-Ari | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,268 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Amichai Eliyahu be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Amichai Eliyahu | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,206 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Hamad Amar be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Hamad Amar | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,063 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Elazar Stern be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Elazar Stern | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,801 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Avi Dichter be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Avi Dichter | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,523 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yossi Cohen be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yossi Cohen | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,513 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yair Golan be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yair Golan | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 5,141 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chili Tropper be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Chili Tropper | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,132 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Itamar Ben-Gvir be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Itamar Ben-Gvir | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 4,889 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Haim Katz be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Haim Katz | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,801 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tally Gotliv be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Tally Gotliv | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,801 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Gideon Sa'ar | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,801 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Amir Ohana be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Amir Ohana | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,168 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Limor Son Har-Melech be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Limor Son Har-Melech | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,161 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yitzhak Wasserlauf be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yitzhak Wasserlauf | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,053 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yoram Cohen be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yoram Cohen | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,180 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Matan Kahana be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Matan Kahana | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 201 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bezalel Smotrich be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Bezalel Smotrich | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 100 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ofer Winter be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Ofer Winter | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 80 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Talya Lankri be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Talya Lankri | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yoaz Hendel be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yoaz Hendel | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ram Ben-Barak be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Ram Ben-Barak | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Eli Cohen be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Eli Cohen | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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