Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Who will be Knesset Speaker after the election? on Kalshi
If Elazar Stern wins the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Knesset.
Market says (typical open contract)
43%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
86% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yair Lapid win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Yair Lapid | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 6,156 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gadi Eisenkot win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Gadi Eisenkot | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 2,057 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Amir Ohana win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Amir Ohana | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 934 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Orit Farkash Hacohen win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Orit Farkash Hacohen | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 680 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Naftali Bennett win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Naftali Bennett | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 438 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Merav Ben Ari win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Merav Ben Ari | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 396 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oded Forer win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Oded Forer | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 329 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chili Tropper win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Chili Tropper | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 263 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Matan Kahana win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Matan Kahana | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 113 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gilad Kariv win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Gilad Kariv | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 40 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ofir Katz win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Ofir Katz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Elazar Stern win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Elazar Stern | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Yair Golan win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Yair Golan | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Avigdor Lieberman | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Vladimir Beliak win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Vladimir Beliak | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ram Ben-Barak win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Ram Ben-Barak | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Meirav Cohen win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Meirav Cohen | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boaz Bismuth win the first election for Speaker of the Knesset after the Oct 27, 2026 Knesset election? · Boaz Bismuth | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.