Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Knesset Speaker election date on Kalshi
If the Knesset elected on Oct 27, 2026 elects a Speaker before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Knesset.
Market says (typical open contract)
62%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
77% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 61¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.37 | 62.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Knesset elect a Speaker before Nov 13, 2026? · Before Nov 13, 2026 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 232 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Knesset elect a Speaker before Nov 11, 2026? · Before Nov 11, 2026 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 200 | Nov 11, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Knesset elect a Speaker before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 199 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Knesset elect a Speaker before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 22 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Knesset elect a Speaker before Nov 18, 2026? · Before Nov 18, 2026 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 15 | Nov 18, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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