What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 26¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.59.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 27% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 26%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Israeli Likud-Yashar unity government on Kalshi

If the Knesset approves a new government that includes both Likud and Yashar in a vote of confidence before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Knesset.

Market says (typical open contract)

26%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

52% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
26¢ (now)	1.3¢	$2.59	27.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the Knesset approve a new government with both Likud and Yashar before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	193	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Knesset approve a new government with both Likud and Yashar before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	52%	87	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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