What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 3¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.40.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 3%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Prime Minister of Italy after the next election on Kalshi

If Roberto Vannacci becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: parliament or legislature of <country>, official government gazette or equivalent official publication of <country>, office of the head of state of <country>, major national news outlets of <country>, Financial Times, the Associated Press, official government websites of <country>, Reuters, The Guardian, BBC, The Washington Post, Bloomberg News, The New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

6% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election? · Giorgia Meloni	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	2,108	Dec 22, 15:00 UTC
Will Roberto Gualtieri become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election? · Roberto Gualtieri	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	2,057	Dec 22, 15:00 UTC
Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election? · Giuseppe Conte	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	1,285	Dec 22, 15:00 UTC
Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election? · Elly Schlein	23¢	23%	1.2¢	—	46%	996	Dec 22, 15:00 UTC
Will Silvia Salis become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election? · Silvia Salis	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	893	Dec 22, 15:00 UTC
Will Paolo Gentiloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election? · Paolo Gentiloni	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	698	Dec 22, 15:00 UTC
Will Gaetano Manfredi become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election? · Gaetano Manfredi	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	692	Dec 22, 15:00 UTC
Will Ernesto Maria Ruffini become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election? · Ernesto Maria Ruffini	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	691	Dec 22, 15:00 UTC
Will Antonio Tajani become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election? · Antonio Tajani	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	688	Dec 22, 15:00 UTC
Will Antonio Decaro become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election? · Antonio Decaro	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	653	Dec 22, 15:00 UTC
Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election? · Roberto Vannacci	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	600	Dec 22, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.