Markets › Kalshi › Sports
ITF Men's Match on Kalshi
If Patricio Alvarado wins the Alujas vs Alvarado professional tennis match in the 2026 M15 Zamora Round of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, ITF, Fox Sports, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 306 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Blando wins · Jayson Blando | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 188,445 | Nov 24, 01:00 UTC |
| Ryo Minakata wins · Ryo Minakata | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 113,786 | Nov 24, 01:00 UTC |
| Rodrigo Leal wins · Rodrigo Leal | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 90,987 | Nov 23, 16:00 UTC |
| Diogo Morais wins · Diogo Morais | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 79,592 | Nov 23, 16:00 UTC |
| Naufal Siddiq Kamaruzzaman wins · Naufal Siddiq Kamaruzzaman | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 47,055 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Martim Bernardo wins · Martim Bernardo | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 18,843 | Nov 23, 16:30 UTC |
| Fons Van Sambeek wins · Fons Van Sambeek | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,144 | Nov 24, 03:00 UTC |
| Samarth Sahita wins · Samarth Sahita | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 9,404 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Thantub Suksumrarn wins · Thantub Suksumrarn | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,468 | Nov 24, 03:00 UTC |
| Tomas Curras Abasolo wins · Tomas Curras Abasolo | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 4,158 | Nov 23, 16:30 UTC |
| Adam Bajurko wins · Adam Bajurko | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 2,904 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Hien Pham wins · Hien Pham | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 2,845 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Julio Cesar Porras wins · Julio Cesar Porras | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 2,788 | Nov 24, 09:30 UTC |
| Kuan-Shou Chen wins · Kuan-Shou Chen | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 2,584 | Nov 24, 04:00 UTC |
| Takumi Katsuda wins · Takumi Katsuda | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 2,541 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Lourenco Silva E Costa wins · Lourenco Silva E Costa | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,496 | Nov 24, 11:00 UTC |
| Linang Xiao wins · Linang Xiao | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 2,226 | Nov 24, 04:30 UTC |
| Mustapha El Natour wins · Mustapha El Natour | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 1,081 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Dante Pagani wins · Dante Pagani | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 1,052 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Ian Pedersen Lozano wins · Ian Pedersen Lozano | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,045 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Victor Braga wins · Victor Braga | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 979 | Nov 24, 13:00 UTC |
| Ignacio De Armas wins · Ignacio De Armas | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 954 | Nov 24, 16:00 UTC |
| Sebastian Sorger wins · Sebastian Sorger | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 828 | Nov 24, 11:00 UTC |
| Tadeo Meneo wins · Tadeo Meneo | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 805 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Joseph hernandez wins · Joseph hernandez | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 801 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Marcos Diaz Revuelta wins · Marcos Diaz Revuelta | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 800 | Nov 24, 11:00 UTC |
| Carles Rojas wins · Carles Rojas | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 800 | Nov 24, 11:00 UTC |
| Valentin Garay wins · Valentin Garay | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 755 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Mario Arce Fernandez wins · Mario Arce Fernandez | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 754 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Tomohiro Masabayashi wins · Tomohiro Masabayashi | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 695 | Nov 24, 04:00 UTC |
| Vladimir Osminkin wins · Vladimir Osminkin | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 687 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Ramazan Kaan Oktay wins · Ramazan Kaan Oktay | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 660 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| valentino conte wins · valentino conte | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 618 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Ammar Elamin wins · Ammar Elamin | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 599 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Hernan Casanova wins · Hernan Casanova | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 559 | Nov 24, 16:00 UTC |
| Adam Kaczmarek wins · Adam Kaczmarek | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 548 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Louis Herman wins · Louis Herman | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 510 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa wins · Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 494 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Jack Karlsson Wistrand wins · Jack Karlsson Wistrand | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 469 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Melvin Kumar wins · Melvin Kumar | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 463 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 306 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.