Markets › Kalshi › Sports
ITF Women's Match on Kalshi
If Kelly Keller wins the Keller vs Dean professional tennis match in the 2026 W15 Lincoln NE Round of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, ITF, Fox Sports, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 274 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yujia Huang wins · Yujia Huang | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 412,729 | Nov 24, 01:00 UTC |
| Merel Hoedt wins · Merel Hoedt | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 376,139 | Nov 24, 01:00 UTC |
| Ho Ching Wu wins · Ho Ching Wu | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 76,017 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Natsuki Yoshimoto wins · Natsuki Yoshimoto | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 60,239 | Nov 24, 01:00 UTC |
| Yu-Ning Tsai wins · Yu-Ning Tsai | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 47,051 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Noelani Sara Teso wins · Noelani Sara Teso | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 45,175 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Wushuang Zheng wins · Wushuang Zheng | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 29,200 | Nov 24, 02:00 UTC |
| Priska Madelyn Nugroho wins · Priska Madelyn Nugroho | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 27,166 | Nov 24, 01:00 UTC |
| Jiyun Oh wins · Jiyun Oh | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 20,338 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Ziyan Zhang wins · Ziyan Zhang | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 19,578 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Xiao Tang wins · Xiao Tang | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 15,319 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Jiaqi Wang wins · Jiaqi Wang | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 12,690 | Nov 24, 04:30 UTC |
| Zhuoxuan Bai wins · Zhuoxuan Bai | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 11,049 | Nov 24, 02:00 UTC |
| Naoko Eto wins · Naoko Eto | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11,001 | Nov 24, 04:30 UTC |
| Ziyu Zhou wins · Ziyu Zhou | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 8,897 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Xiaowei Li wins · Xiaowei Li | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 7,313 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Xichen Zhao wins · Xichen Zhao | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 6,291 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Marianna Shikhanova wins · Marianna Shikhanova | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 6,089 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Sara Yoshida wins · Sara Yoshida | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 5,902 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Yinuo Huang wins · Yinuo Huang | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 4,835 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Junlu Sun wins · Junlu Sun | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,491 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Daria Barsukov wins · Daria Barsukov | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 2,190 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Andreea Prisacariu wins · Andreea Prisacariu | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,093 | Nov 24, 10:30 UTC |
| Zeinab Ayadi wins · Zeinab Ayadi | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 1,858 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
| Yuno Kitahara wins · Yuno Kitahara | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 1,731 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Wenfei Yu wins · Wenfei Yu | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,652 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Anna Brunet-Brady wins · Anna Brunet-Brady | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 1,454 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Nagi Hanatani wins · Nagi Hanatani | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 1,427 | Nov 24, 02:30 UTC |
| Romy De Baene wins · Romy De Baene | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1,425 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Viola Bedini wins · Viola Bedini | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 1,307 | Nov 24, 10:30 UTC |
| Alana Subasic wins · Alana Subasic | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,246 | Nov 24, 03:30 UTC |
| Alja Senica wins · Alja Senica | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 1,025 | Nov 24, 10:30 UTC |
| Emilia Carlotta Brune wins · Emilia Carlotta Brune | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 844 | Nov 24, 10:30 UTC |
| Marie Mettraux wins · Marie Mettraux | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 829 | Nov 24, 16:00 UTC |
| Victoria Gomez O'Hayon wins · Victoria Gomez O'Hayon | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 801 | Nov 24, 07:30 UTC |
| Rebeca Pereira wins · Rebeca Pereira | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 715 | Nov 24, 16:00 UTC |
| Alisa Oktiabreva wins · Alisa Oktiabreva | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 695 | Nov 24, 09:30 UTC |
| Matilde Paoletti wins · Matilde Paoletti | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 683 | Nov 24, 09:30 UTC |
| Dimitra Georgakopoulou wins · Dimitra Georgakopoulou | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 614 | Nov 24, 09:30 UTC |
| Leire De Ezcurra wins · Leire De Ezcurra | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 602 | Nov 24, 09:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 274 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.