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Japan J2 League Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Omiya Ardija vs Montedio professional Japan J2 League soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
27%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
54% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.56 | 28.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albirex wins · Albirex | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 440 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Tegevajaro wins · Tegevajaro | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 417 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 50 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Montedio wins · Montedio | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Omiya Ardija wins · Omiya Ardija | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Tochigi City FC wins · Tochigi City FC | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Oita wins · Oita | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Ventforet wins · Ventforet | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Fujieda wins · Fujieda | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Yokohama wins · Yokohama | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
| Shonan wins · Shonan | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 16, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.