What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 10¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.15.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 11% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 10%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Where will Haley Stevens work next? on Kalshi

If Haley Stevens joins Stellantis before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: NewsNation official website, Fox News official website, General Motors newsroom, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Semafor, Bloomberg News, CBS News official website, NBC News, The Information, Haley Stevens official website, CNBC, Ford Media Center, Securities and Exchange Commission filings, The Washington Post, TechCrunch, CNN official website, Axios, Stellantis newsroom, Reuters, The Free Press official website, Haley Stevens official X account, the Associated Press, ABC News, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

10%

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

20% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
10¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.15	10.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Where will Haley Stevens work next? · CBS News / The Free Press	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	1,415	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Where will Haley Stevens work next? · Fox News	10¢	10%	0.7¢	—	21%	170	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Where will Haley Stevens work next? · NewsNation	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	18	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Where will Haley Stevens work next? · Stellantis	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Where will Haley Stevens work next? · General Motors	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Where will Haley Stevens work next? · Ford	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Where will Haley Stevens work next? · CNN	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.