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New JPM CEO on Kalshi
If Troy Rohrbaugh is, or is announced to be in the future, the first non-interim CEO of JPMorgan Chase after Jamie Dimon before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
33%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
66% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 33¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.34 | 34.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marianne Lake succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan? · Marianne Lake | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 15,415 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Troy Rohrbaugh succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan? · Troy Rohrbaugh | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 5,581 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Doug Petno succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan? · Doug Petno | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 2,088 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jennifer Piepszak succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan? · Jennifer Piepszak | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,861 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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