What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 40¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.10.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 42% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 40%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Court judgments on Kalshi

If the New Mexico Court of Appeals, the New Mexico Supreme Court or the U.S. Supreme Court reduces, vacates or reverses, in whole or in part, the roughly $25 billion civil penalty imposed on Meta in the district court's October 21, 2026 order, including as later amended or reentered by the district court in State of New Mexico v. Facebook, Inc., No. D-101-CV-202100132 (N.M. First Jud. Dist. Ct.), or any appeal thereof before Jan 1, 2032, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: CourtListener, Westlaw, ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, Law360, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, PACER, CBS, NBC, Justia, LexisNexis, Bloomberg Law, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Court News Service, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

40%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

80% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
40¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.10	41.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will SCOTUS end the White House ballroom injunction? · Before Jan 1, 2029	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	80%	7,136	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will United States Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit rule holds that the False Claims Act’s qui tam provisions violate Article II of the Constitution when the United States declines to intervene in the underlying False Claims Act action and the private relator continues the suit? · Before 2028	10¢	10%	0.7¢	—	21%	3,577	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will SCOTUS overturn Trump's $83.3 million Carroll judgment? · Before 2028	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	449	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Meta's $25 billion New Mexico penalty be cut on appeal? · Before 2032	73¢	73%	1.4¢	—	54%	77	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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