Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Kano State governorship election winner on Kalshi
If the PDP candidate wins the 2027 Kano State governorship election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Independent National Electoral Commission.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the PDP candidate win the 2027 Kano State governorship election? · PDP | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the NDC candidate win the 2027 Kano State governorship election? · NDC | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Feb 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the LP candidate win the 2027 Kano State governorship election? · LP | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the APC candidate win the 2027 Kano State governorship election? · APC | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Feb 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the ADC candidate win the 2027 Kano State governorship election? · ADC | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Feb 06, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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