What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 53¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.63.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 55% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 53%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Israel Katz out as defense minister this year? on Kalshi

If Israel Katz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Minister of Defense of Israel or has actually left as Minister of Defense of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Washington Post, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, ABC, the Associated Press, NBC, Axios, The New York Times, official government websites relevant to <office>, Politico, office or organization where <person> holds <office>, CNN, Reuters, CBS, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

53%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

93% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
53¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.65	54.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Israel Katz leave Minister of Defense of Israel before Jan 1, 2027? · Before 2027	53¢	53%	1.7¢	—	93%	5,145	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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