Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Kenya United Opposition presidential flagbearer on Kalshi
If Ndindi Nyoro wins the contest to be named the presidential flagbearer of Kenya's United Opposition for the 2027 general election by June 11, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Citizen Digital, The Standard.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rigathi Gachagua win the contest to be named the presidential flagbearer of Kenya's United Opposition for the 2027 general election by June 11, 2027? · Rigathi Gachagua | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 87 | Jul 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ndindi Nyoro win the contest to be named the presidential flagbearer of Kenya's United Opposition for the 2027 general election by June 11, 2027? · Ndindi Nyoro | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Jul 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Eugene Wamalwa win the contest to be named the presidential flagbearer of Kenya's United Opposition for the 2027 general election by June 11, 2027? · Eugene Wamalwa | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Jul 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Martha Karua win the contest to be named the presidential flagbearer of Kenya's United Opposition for the 2027 general election by June 11, 2027? · Martha Karua | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kalonzo Musyoka win the contest to be named the presidential flagbearer of Kenya's United Opposition for the 2027 general election by June 11, 2027? · Kalonzo Musyoka | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Jul 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Muturi win the contest to be named the presidential flagbearer of Kenya's United Opposition for the 2027 general election by June 11, 2027? · Justin Muturi | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Fred Matiang'i win the contest to be named the presidential flagbearer of Kenya's United Opposition for the 2027 general election by June 11, 2027? · Fred Matiang'i | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Jul 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Edwin Sifuna win the contest to be named the presidential flagbearer of Kenya's United Opposition for the 2027 general election by June 11, 2027? · Edwin Sifuna | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will David Maraga win the contest to be named the presidential flagbearer of Kenya's United Opposition for the 2027 general election by June 11, 2027? · David Maraga | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 12, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.