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WHO WILL GO ON TINY DESK on Kalshi
If Patti Smith is on Tiny Desk before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: production company's official channels, Apple Podcasts, The Source Agencies are, official website or platform of media, media, etc, media's official social media accounts, HBO Max, in hierarchical order, Spotify, official website or platform where media is distributed (Netflix.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Olivia Dean be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Olivia Dean | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 4,927 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Olivia Rodrigo | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 3,767 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Paul McCartney be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Paul McCartney | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,729 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J. Cole be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · J. Cole | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 857 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Sabrina Carpenter | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 839 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Patti Smith be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Patti Smith | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 681 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chappell Roan be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Chappell Roan | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 659 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Taylor Swift | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 438 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bruce Springsteen be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Bruce Springsteen | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 367 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyler, The Creator be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Tyler, The Creator | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 350 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ella Langley be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Ella Langley | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 214 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bad Bunny be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Bad Bunny | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 212 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ice Spice be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Ice Spice | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 209 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Drake | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 193 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Mayer be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · John Mayer | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 115 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SZA be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · SZA | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 91 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Billie Eilish be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Billie Eilish | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 70 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rihanna be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Rihanna | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 69 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Doja Cat be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Doja Cat | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 35 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kendrick Lamar be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Kendrick Lamar | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 27 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will André 3000 be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · André 3000 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 25 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Travis Scott be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Travis Scott | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 8 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Frank Ocean be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Frank Ocean | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 4 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elton John be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Elton John | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Playboi Carti be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Playboi Carti | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lil Yachty be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Lil Yachty | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lauryn Hill be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027? · Lauryn Hill | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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