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Kentucky coal production on Kalshi
If EIA reports that Kentucky’s total coal production for calendar year 2027 is above 30 million short tons, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
36%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
71% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 35¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.28 | 36.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kentucky’s total coal production for 2027 be above 22 million short tons? · Above 22 million short tons | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 21,309 | Apr 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Kentucky’s total coal production for 2027 be above 28 million short tons? · Above 28 million short tons | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 14,816 | Apr 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Kentucky’s total coal production for 2027 be above 20 million short tons? · Above 20 million short tons | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 13,951 | Apr 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Kentucky’s total coal production for 2027 be above 24 million short tons? · Above 24 million short tons | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 9,662 | Apr 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Kentucky’s total coal production for 2027 be above 26 million short tons? · Above 26 million short tons | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 8,665 | Apr 30, 13:59 UTC |
| Will Kentucky’s total coal production for 2027 be above 30 million short tons? · Above 30 million short tons | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 631 | Apr 30, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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