What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 40¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.08.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 42% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 40%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Louisiana Governor 2027: who will run? on Kalshi

If Mitch Landrieu has announced that they will run for Governor of Louisiana in 2027 after Issuance and before Aug 6, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, ABC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, Fox News, CNN, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

40%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

81% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
41¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.07	42.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Jamie Davis announce a run for Governor of Louisiana in 2027? · Jamie Davis	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	57%	391	Aug 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Jeff Landry announce a run for Governor of Louisiana in 2027? · Jeff Landry	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	59%	212	Aug 06, 14:00 UTC
Will John Bel Edwards announce a run for Governor of Louisiana in 2027? · John Bel Edwards	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	208	Aug 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Garret Graves announce a run for Governor of Louisiana in 2027? · Garret Graves	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	79%	2	Aug 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Mitch Landrieu announce a run for Governor of Louisiana in 2027? · Mitch Landrieu	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	41%	0	Aug 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Jay Luneau announce a run for Governor of Louisiana in 2027? · Jay Luneau	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	0	Aug 06, 14:00 UTC
Will John Fleming announce a run for Governor of Louisiana in 2027? · John Fleming	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	0	Aug 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Billy Nungesser announce a run for Governor of Louisiana in 2027? · Billy Nungesser	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	0	Aug 06, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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