What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 23¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.70.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 24% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 23%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Lai Ching-te visits the United States on Kalshi

If, after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, Lai Ching-te visits the United States of America by physically travelling to and being present within its geographic boundaries, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Office of the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), The Guardian, ABC, Fox News, U.S. Department of State, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (Taiwan), CBS, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Politico, the Associated Press, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in the United States, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

23%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

46% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
23¢ (now)	1.2¢	$2.70	24.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Lai Ching-te visit the United States of America before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	23¢	23%	1.2¢	—	46%	797	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Lai Ching-te visit the United States of America before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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