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LaLiga 2 Game on Kalshi
If Valladolid wins the Valladolid vs Castellon professional La Liga 2 soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: BBC Sport, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
29%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
57% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.49 | 30.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos wins · Burgos | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 169 | Nov 15, 19:30 UTC |
| Andorra wins · Andorra | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 50 | Nov 10, 13:00 UTC |
| Mallorca wins · Mallorca | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 34 | Nov 10, 13:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 20 | Nov 10, 13:00 UTC |
| Leganes wins · Leganes | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 4 | Nov 15, 19:30 UTC |
| Valladolid wins · Valladolid | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Castellon wins · Castellon | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 16, 13:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 16, 15:15 UTC |
| Real Sociedad B wins · Real Sociedad B | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Nov 16, 15:15 UTC |
| Gijon wins · Gijon | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 16, 15:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:30 UTC |
| Andorra wins · Andorra | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:30 UTC |
| Almeria wins · Almeria | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:30 UTC |
| Mallorca wins · Mallorca | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:30 UTC |
| Cordoba wins · Cordoba | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 16, 17:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Oviedo wins · Oviedo | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Girona wins · Girona | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 15, 19:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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