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La Liga Last Place Finisher on Kalshi
If Villarreal finishes in last place in the league table in the 2026-27 La Liga season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Sky Sports, ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barcelona finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Barcelona | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 251 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Atletico Madrid finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Atletico Madrid | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 244 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Valencia finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Valencia | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 183 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Real Madrid finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Real Madrid | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 154 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Malaga finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Malaga | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 134 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Athletic Bilbao finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Athletic Bilbao | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 14 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Racing Santander finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Racing Santander | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 4 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Villarreal finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Villarreal | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Sevilla finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Sevilla | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Rayo Vallecano finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Rayo Vallecano | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Real Sociedad finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Real Sociedad | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Celta Vigo finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Celta Vigo | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Betis finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Betis | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Osasuna finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Osasuna | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Levante finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Levante | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Getafe finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Getafe | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Espanyol finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Espanyol | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Elche finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Elche | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Deportivo De La Coruna finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Deportivo De La Coruna | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Alaves finish in last place in the La Liga 2026-27 season? · Alaves | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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