Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NFL leader passing TDs on Kalshi
If Kirk Cousins leads Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 29 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dak Prescott lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Dak Prescott | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 13,946 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Burrow lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Joe Burrow | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 13,288 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brock Purdy lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Brock Purdy | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 11,806 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matthew Stafford lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Matthew Stafford | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 9,165 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Caleb Williams lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Caleb Williams | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,555 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan Love lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Jordan Love | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 7,460 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trevor Lawrence lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Trevor Lawrence | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 7,069 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jared Goff lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Jared Goff | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 7,031 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake Maye lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Drake Maye | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,693 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Herbert lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Justin Herbert | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,660 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lamar Jackson lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Lamar Jackson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,963 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyler Shough lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Tyler Shough | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,619 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Allen lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Josh Allen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,890 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Patrick Mahomes lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Patrick Mahomes | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,709 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will C.J. Stroud lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · C.J. Stroud | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,549 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bryce Young lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Bryce Young | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,797 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Aaron Rodgers lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Aaron Rodgers | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,137 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bo Nix lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Bo Nix | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,695 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Geno Smith lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Geno Smith | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,645 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jalen Hurts lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Jalen Hurts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,631 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baker Mayfield lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Baker Mayfield | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,024 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jayden Daniels lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Jayden Daniels | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,833 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Darnold lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Sam Darnold | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,763 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shedeur Sanders lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Shedeur Sanders | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 895 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cam Ward lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Cam Ward | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 789 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kirk Cousins lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Kirk Cousins | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 782 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jacoby Brissett lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Jacoby Brissett | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 703 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Malik Willis lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Malik Willis | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 190 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Daniel Jones lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season? · Daniel Jones | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.