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NFL leader rushing TDs on Kalshi
If Tony Pollard leads Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jahmyr Gibbs lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Jahmyr Gibbs | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 9,309 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kenneth Walker III lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Kenneth Walker III | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 8,259 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jonathan Taylor lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Jonathan Taylor | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 7,696 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Omarion Hampton lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Omarion Hampton | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,313 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Allen lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Josh Allen | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 4,366 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Jacobs lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Josh Jacobs | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,363 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Derrick Henry lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Derrick Henry | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,164 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Montgomery lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · David Montgomery | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,115 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Cook III lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · James Cook III | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,941 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cam Skattebo lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Cam Skattebo | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,890 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bijan Robinson lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Bijan Robinson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,740 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ashton Jeanty lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Ashton Jeanty | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,476 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Javonte Williams lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Javonte Williams | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 3,015 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will De'Von Achane lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · De'Von Achane | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,965 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Travis Etienne Jr. lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Travis Etienne Jr. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,250 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Christian McCaffrey lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Christian McCaffrey | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 2,174 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kyren Williams lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Kyren Williams | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,975 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Breece Hall lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Breece Hall | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,813 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Saquon Barkley lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Saquon Barkley | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,720 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chase Brown lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Chase Brown | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,326 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lamar Jackson lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Lamar Jackson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 901 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will D'Andre Swift lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · D'Andre Swift | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 865 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alvin Kamara lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Alvin Kamara | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 321 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chuba Hubbard lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Chuba Hubbard | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 142 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tony Pollard lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Tony Pollard | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 107 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will RJ Harvey lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · RJ Harvey | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jacory Croskey-Merritt lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season? · Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 93 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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