What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 11¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.13.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 11% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 11%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Jessica Tisch leave office on Kalshi

If Jessica Tisch has either officially announced their intention to leave NYPD Commissioner or has actually left NYPD Commissioner before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Washington Post, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, ABC, the Associated Press, NBC, Axios, The New York Times, official government websites relevant to <office>, Politico, office or organization where <person> holds <office>, CNN, Reuters, CBS, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

11%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

21% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
11¢ (now)	0.7¢	$3.12	11.7%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Jessica Tisch leave NYPD Commissioner before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	34,848	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Jessica Tisch leave NYPD Commissioner before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	21¢	21%	1.2¢	—	42%	234	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Jessica Tisch leave NYPD Commissioner before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	101	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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