Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Ligue 1 Relegation on Kalshi
If Toulouse is relegated from the Ligue 1 in 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will PSG be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · PSG | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 23,084 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Angers be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Angers | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 238 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Le Mans be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Le Mans | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 84 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Auxerre be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Auxerre | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 46 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Nice be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Nice | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 13 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Le Havre be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Le Havre | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 12 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Troyes be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Troyes | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 11 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lorient be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Lorient | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 3 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stade Brest 29 be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Stade Brest 29 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Toulouse be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Toulouse | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lille be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Lille | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Strasbourg Alsace be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Strasbourg Alsace | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Paris be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Paris | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stade Rennes be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Stade Rennes | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lens be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Lens | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Marseille be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Marseille | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lyon be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Lyon | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Monaco be relegated from Ligue 1 in 2026-27 Season? · Monaco | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.