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LIV Golf Event Occurrence on Kalshi
If an officially sanctioned LIV Golf Tournament happens anywhere in the world after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027 at 12:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: LIV Golf, The Wall Street Journal, Fox Sports, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
16% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will an officially sanctioned LIV Golf Tournament take place anywhere in the world before April 1, 2027? · LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 6,338 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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