What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 68¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.14.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 69% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 68%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology

LLM chess on Kalshi

If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Axios, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, the Associated Press, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post.

Market says (typical open contract)

68%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

65% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
68¢ (now)	1.5¢	$1.12	69.5%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2027? · Before 2027	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	5,501	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2028? · Before 2028	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	87%	4,242	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2029? · Before 2029	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	65%	796	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030? · Before 2030	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	49%	378	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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