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AI model head-to-head on Kalshi
If Xiaomi's top model has a higher Arena Score than Alibaba's top model on the LM Arena text leaderboard on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control).
Market says (typical open contract)
54%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
91% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 54¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.61 | 55.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have a higher Arena Score than Meta at the end of 2026? · OpenAI | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 10,561 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Meta have a higher Arena Score than OpenAI at the end of 2026? · Meta | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 4,943 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Anthropic have a higher Arena Score than Google at the end of 2026? · Anthropic | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 4,129 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alibaba have a higher Arena Score than Xiaomi at the end of 2026? · Alibaba | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 2,619 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Xiaomi have a higher Arena Score than Alibaba at the end of 2026? · Xiaomi | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 76 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Google have a higher Arena Score than Anthropic at the end of 2026? · Google | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.