What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 38¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.15.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 40% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 38%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Lockheed Martin KPI on Kalshi

If Lockheed Martin Corporation reports Above 58 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

38%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

77% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
39¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.14	40.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 18 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 18	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	31%	493	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 46 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 46	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	200	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 34 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 34	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	97%	190	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 36 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 36	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	90%	153	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 58 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 58	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 44 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 44	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	0	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 42 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 42	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	0	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 40 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 40	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	61%	0	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 38 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 38	38¢	38%	1.7¢	—	77%	0	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 32 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 32	59¢	59%	1.7¢	—	82%	0	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 30 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 30	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	69%	0	Aug 20, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.