What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Republican House members losing re-election on Kalshi

If at least 48 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Washington Post, NBC, Fox News, official state or local election division websites, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, Ballotpedia, the Clerk of the House of Representatives, the Associated Press, Sabato's Crystal Ball, the Secretary of the Senate, New York Times, CNN, The Cook Political Report, Reuters, Politico, Bloomberg News, CBS.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will at least 36 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026? · 36 or more	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	320	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will at least 32 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026? · 32 or more	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	173	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will at least 44 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026? · 44 or more	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	2	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will at least 48 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026? · 48 or more	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will at least 40 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026? · 40 or more	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will at least 28 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026? · 28 or more	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will at least 24 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026? · 24 or more	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will at least 20 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026? · 20 or more	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will at least 16 members of the House Republicans lose re-election in 2026? · 16 or more	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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