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Loudoun Water data center potable water use on Kalshi
If Loudoun Water data center potable water use for Q1 2027, as published by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality or Loudoun Water, is above 450 million gallons, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Loudoun Water, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
41% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.77 | 22.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Loudoun Water data center potable water use for Q1 2027 be above 200 million gallons? · Above 200 million gallons | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 34 | Oct 01, 12:29 UTC |
| Will Loudoun Water data center potable water use for Q1 2027 be above 450 million gallons? · Above 450 million gallons | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Oct 01, 12:29 UTC |
| Will Loudoun Water data center potable water use for Q1 2027 be above 400 million gallons? · Above 400 million gallons | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Oct 01, 12:29 UTC |
| Will Loudoun Water data center potable water use for Q1 2027 be above 350 million gallons? · Above 350 million gallons | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Oct 01, 12:29 UTC |
| Will Loudoun Water data center potable water use for Q1 2027 be above 300 million gallons? · Above 300 million gallons | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Oct 01, 12:29 UTC |
| Will Loudoun Water data center potable water use for Q1 2027 be above 250 million gallons? · Above 250 million gallons | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Oct 01, 12:29 UTC |
| Will Loudoun Water data center potable water use for Q1 2027 be above 150 million gallons? · Above 150 million gallons | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Oct 01, 12:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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