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Lowe's Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Lowe's Companies Inc. reports Above 790000000 retail customer transactions in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
92% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 46¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.89 | 47.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 785 million retail customer transactions in fiscal 2026? · Above 785 million | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,772 | May 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 775 million retail customer transactions in fiscal 2026? · Above 775 million | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 2,612 | May 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 790 million retail customer transactions in fiscal 2026? · Above 790 million | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,470 | May 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 740 million retail customer transactions in fiscal 2026? · Above 740 million | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,203 | May 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 0.5% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 0.5% | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 1,200 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 745 million retail customer transactions in fiscal 2026? · Above 745 million | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 866 | May 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 765 million retail customer transactions in fiscal 2026? · Above 765 million | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 630 | May 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 760 million retail customer transactions in fiscal 2026? · Above 760 million | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 600 | May 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 770 million retail customer transactions in fiscal 2026? · Above 770 million | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 398 | May 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 750 million retail customer transactions in fiscal 2026? · Above 750 million | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 200 | May 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 3% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 3% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 190 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 780 million retail customer transactions in fiscal 2026? · Above 780 million | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 165 | May 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above -1% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -1% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 35 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above -0.5% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above -0.5% | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 35 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 2.5% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 2.5% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 35 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 2% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 2% | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 20 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 0% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 0% | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 20 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 755 million retail customer transactions in fiscal 2026? · Above 755 million | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | May 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 1.5% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 1.5% | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Lowe's Companies Inc. report Above 1% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026? · Above 1% | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | May 26, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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