What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.20.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Lowest temperature in Denver on Kalshi

If the minimum temperature recorded at Denver (CLIDEN) for Nov 10, 2026, is greater than 40° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Weather Company.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

17% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.19	9.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the minimum temperature be >41° on Nov 9, 2026? · 42° or above	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	8,964	Nov 10, 08:00 UTC
Will the minimum temperature be 38-39° on Nov 9, 2026? · 38° to 39°	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	1,371	Nov 10, 08:00 UTC
Will the minimum temperature be 40-41° on Nov 9, 2026? · 40° to 41°	88¢	88%	0.8¢	—	25%	1,122	Nov 10, 08:00 UTC
Will the minimum temperature be 36-37° on Nov 9, 2026? · 36° to 37°	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	697	Nov 10, 08:00 UTC
Will the minimum temperature be 34-35° on Nov 9, 2026? · 34° to 35°	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	325	Nov 10, 08:00 UTC
Will the minimum temperature be <34° on Nov 9, 2026? · 33° or below	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	162	Nov 10, 08:00 UTC
Will the minimum temperature be <33° on Nov 10, 2026? · 32° or below	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	30	Nov 11, 08:00 UTC
Will the minimum temperature be 39-40° on Nov 10, 2026? · 39° to 40°	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	51%	7	Nov 11, 08:00 UTC
Will the minimum temperature be >40° on Nov 10, 2026? · 41° or above	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	3	Nov 11, 08:00 UTC
Will the minimum temperature be 37-38° on Nov 10, 2026? · 37° to 38°	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	63%	0	Nov 11, 08:00 UTC
Will the minimum temperature be 35-36° on Nov 10, 2026? · 35° to 36°	23¢	23%	1.2¢	—	45%	0	Nov 11, 08:00 UTC
Will the minimum temperature be 33-34° on Nov 10, 2026? · 33° to 34°	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Nov 11, 08:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.