What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 86¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.51.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 86% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 86%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Will Ferrari deliver luce on Kalshi

If Ferrari officially announces confirmed delivery of the Ferrari Luce before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database, Fox Business, ABC, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, MSNBC, Financial Times, The Information, NBC, The Washington Post, Ferrari, The New York Times, MarketWatch, Axios, Reuters, CNN, the Associated Press, CBS, Politico, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

86%

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

29% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
85¢ (now)	0.9¢	$0.53	85.9%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Ferrari announce confirmed delivery of the Ferrari Luce before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Dec 1, 2026	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	84%	582	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Ferrari announce confirmed delivery of the Ferrari Luce before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	412	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Ferrari announce confirmed delivery of the Ferrari Luce before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027	86¢	86%	0.9¢	—	29%	216	Mar 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Ferrari announce confirmed delivery of the Ferrari Luce before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	45%	216	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Ferrari announce confirmed delivery of the Ferrari Luce before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Jun 1, 2027	91¢	91%	0.6¢	—	18%	87	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Ferrari announce confirmed delivery of the Ferrari Luce before Jun 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	24	May 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Ferrari announce confirmed delivery of the Ferrari Luce before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	23%	16	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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