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Southwest Airlines KPI on Kalshi
If Southwest Airlines Company reports Above 57000000 seats flown in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
68%
Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
65% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 68¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.12 | 69.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 55.5 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 55.5 million | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 10,177 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 55 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 55 million | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 8,272 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 54.5 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 54.5 million | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 7,889 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 54 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 54 million | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 5,299 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $257.5 average passenger fare (usd) in Q1 2027? · Above $257.5 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 3,515 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $242.5 average passenger fare (usd) in Q1 2027? · Above $242.5 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 3,381 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 53 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 53 million | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 1,626 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $232.5 average passenger fare (usd) in Q1 2027? · Above $232.5 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 1,120 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 50.5 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 50.5 million | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 1,113 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $252.5 average passenger fare (usd) in Q1 2027? · Above $252.5 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 1,074 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $247.5 average passenger fare (usd) in Q1 2027? · Above $247.5 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,018 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $262.5 average passenger fare (usd) in Q1 2027? · Above $262.5 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 866 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $212.5 average passenger fare (usd) in Q1 2027? · Above $212.5 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 740 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 52 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 52 million | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 496 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 51.5 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 51.5 million | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 445 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 52.5 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 52.5 million | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 337 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 51 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 51 million | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 200 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 56 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 56 million | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 30 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 57 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 57 million | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 56.5 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 56.5 million | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $237.5 average passenger fare (usd) in Q1 2027? · Above $237.5 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $227.5 average passenger fare (usd) in Q1 2027? · Above $227.5 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $222.5 average passenger fare (usd) in Q1 2027? · Above $222.5 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $217.5 average passenger fare (usd) in Q1 2027? · Above $217.5 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
| Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 53.5 million seats flown in Q1 2027? · Above 53.5 million | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Aug 19, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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