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Lyft app downloads on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Lyft app downloads (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 99 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
78%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
45% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 78¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.77 | 79.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lyft app downloads for November 2026 be above 82 ? · Above 82 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 16,266 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lyft app downloads for November 2026 be above 141 ? · Above 141 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 6,457 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lyft app downloads for November 2026 be above 110.5 ? · Above 110.5 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,015 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lyft app downloads for November 2026 be above 93.5 ? · Above 93.5 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 938 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lyft app downloads for November 2026 be above 124 ? · Above 124 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 864 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lyft app downloads for November 2026 be above 99 ? · Above 99 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 827 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lyft app downloads for November 2026 be above 105 ? · Above 105 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 476 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lyft app downloads for November 2026 be above 116.5 ? · Above 116.5 | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 54 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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