What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 30¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.45.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 31% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 30%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Macron vs Owens on Kalshi

If Delaware Superior Court sides with Brigitte Macron in Macron and Macron vs Owens (case number: N25C-07-194 CLS) before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, MSNBC, Law360, Bloomberg Law Court Filings, The Wall Street Journal, STAT News, Westlaw Court Records, PACER, Delaware Superior Court, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Fox News, CNN, The New York Times, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

30%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

60% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢ (now)	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Brigitte Macron win her defamation lawsuit against Candace Owens? · Before 2028	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	60%	19,999	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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