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Managers Out on Kalshi
If Xabi Alonso ceases to be the manager of Chelsea before Jun 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Sky Sports, The Athletic.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 40 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
84% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michael Carrick cease to be manager of Manchester United before Jan 1, 2027? · Michael Carrick | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 85,033 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mikel Arteta cease to be manager of Arsenal before Jan 1, 2027? · Mikel Arteta | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 45,185 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andoni Iraola cease to be manager of Liverpool before Jan 1, 2027? · Andoni Iraola | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 15,865 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Xabi Alonso cease to be manager of Chelsea before Jan 1, 2027? · Xabi Alonso | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 14,851 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Enzo Maresca cease to be manager of Manchester City before Jan 1, 2027? · Enzo Maresca | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 12,745 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pierre Sage cease to be manager of Crystal Palace before Jan 1, 2027? · Pierre Sage | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,514 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Unai Emery cease to be manager of Aston Villa before Jan 1, 2027? · Unai Emery | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 9,144 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Moyes cease to be manager of Everton before Jan 1, 2027? · David Moyes | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,656 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Roberto De Zerbi cease to be manager of Tottenham before Jan 1, 2027? · Roberto De Zerbi | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 6,315 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gary O'Neil cease to be manager of Ipswich Town before Jan 1, 2027? · Gary O'Neil | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 3,744 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Keith Andrews cease to be manager of Brentford before Jan 1, 2027? · Keith Andrews | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 3,171 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matthias Jaissle cease to be manager of Newcastle before Jan 1, 2027? · Matthias Jaissle | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 3,042 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Álvaro Arbeloa cease to be manager of Fulham before Jan 1, 2027? · Álvaro Arbeloa | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 2,778 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Frank Lampard cease to be manager of Coventry before Jan 1, 2027? · Frank Lampard | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 2,496 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Daniel Farke cease to be manager of Leeds United before Jan 1, 2027? · Daniel Farke | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,136 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rose cease to be manager of Bournemouth before Jan 1, 2027? · Marco Rose | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 907 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fabian Hürzeler cease to be manager of Brighton before Jan 1, 2027? · Fabian Hürzeler | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 832 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sergej Jakirovic cease to be manager of Hull City before Jan 1, 2027? · Sergej Jakirovic | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 815 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Carrick cease to be manager of Manchester United before Jun 1, 2027? · Michael Carrick | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 679 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Keith Andrews cease to be manager of Brentford before Jun 1, 2027? · Keith Andrews | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 563 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oliver Glasner cease to be manager of Nottingham Forest before Jan 1, 2027? · Oliver Glasner | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 457 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pierre Sage cease to be manager of Crystal Palace before Jun 1, 2027? · Pierre Sage | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 448 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Roberto De Zerbi cease to be manager of Tottenham before Jun 1, 2027? · Roberto De Zerbi | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 430 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mikel Arteta cease to be manager of Arsenal before Jun 1, 2027? · Mikel Arteta | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 405 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Régis Le Bris cease to be manager of Sunderland before Jun 1, 2027? · Régis Le Bris | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 281 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Álvaro Arbeloa cease to be manager of Fulham before Jun 1, 2027? · Álvaro Arbeloa | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 263 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Xabi Alonso cease to be manager of Chelsea before Jun 1, 2027? · Xabi Alonso | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 260 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Régis Le Bris cease to be manager of Sunderland before Jan 1, 2027? · Régis Le Bris | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 259 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Moyes cease to be manager of Everton before Jun 1, 2027? · David Moyes | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 200 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Matthias Jaissle cease to be manager of Newcastle before Jun 1, 2027? · Matthias Jaissle | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 99 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Enzo Maresca cease to be manager of Manchester City before Jun 1, 2027? · Enzo Maresca | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 51 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oliver Glasner cease to be manager of Nottingham Forest before Jun 1, 2027? · Oliver Glasner | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 51 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Andoni Iraola cease to be manager of Liverpool before Jun 1, 2027? · Andoni Iraola | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 4 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Unai Emery cease to be manager of Aston Villa before Jun 1, 2027? · Unai Emery | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sergej Jakirovic cease to be manager of Hull City before Jun 1, 2027? · Sergej Jakirovic | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rose cease to be manager of Bournemouth before Jun 1, 2027? · Marco Rose | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gary O'Neil cease to be manager of Ipswich Town before Jun 1, 2027? · Gary O'Neil | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Frank Lampard cease to be manager of Coventry before Jun 1, 2027? · Frank Lampard | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Fabian Hürzeler cease to be manager of Brighton before Jun 1, 2027? · Fabian Hürzeler | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Daniel Farke cease to be manager of Leeds United before Jun 1, 2027? · Daniel Farke | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Jun 01, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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