What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 16¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.92.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 17% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 16%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Manchin run for president in 2028 on Kalshi

If Joe Manchin has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Mar 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

16%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

33% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
16¢ (now)	0.9¢	$2.94	16.9%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Joe Manchin announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Yes	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	1,405	Mar 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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