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Marcellus natural gas production on Kalshi
If EIA reports that dry natural gas production from the Marcellus formation for calendar year 2026 is above 9.00 Tcf, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
94%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
13% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 94¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $0.21 | 94.4% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will dry natural gas production from the Marcellus formation for 2026 be above 10.00 Tcf? · Above 10.00 Tcf | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 24,286 | Mar 31, 15:29 UTC |
| Will dry natural gas production from the Marcellus formation for 2026 be above 9.75 Tcf? · Above 9.75 Tcf | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 14,621 | Mar 31, 15:29 UTC |
| Will dry natural gas production from the Marcellus formation for 2026 be above 9.50 Tcf? · Above 9.50 Tcf | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 9,263 | Mar 31, 15:29 UTC |
| Will dry natural gas production from the Marcellus formation for 2026 be above 9.25 Tcf? · Above 9.25 Tcf | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,691 | Mar 31, 15:29 UTC |
| Will dry natural gas production from the Marcellus formation for 2026 be above 9.00 Tcf? · Above 9.00 Tcf | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 348 | Mar 31, 15:29 UTC |
| Will dry natural gas production from the Marcellus formation for 2026 be above 10.25 Tcf? · Above 10.25 Tcf | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 303 | Mar 31, 15:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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